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Amazon Pulls Away From Rivals As Black Friday Approaches

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Tue, 24/11/2015 - 14:09
Ted Marzilli
amazon’s consumer perception is pulling away from the rest of the retail sector as Black Friday approaches, one of the very few retailers to make statistically significant gains over one year ago.

Walmart, Best Buy, Old Navy Target, Kohl’s, JC Penney, and eBay form a larger than usual cluster of strong retailers which follow behind Amazon. Last year, both Kohl’s and J.C. Penney fell just short of being part of this group.

However, Best Buy, along with Macy’s, have seen their scores drop in statistically significant numbers that may not bode well for them this holiday season.

Shortly before each Black Friday, YouGov BrandIndex crunches its daily data on 21 of the country’s largest retailers, focusing on two metrics inherent to the holiday shopping season: Purchase Consideration score, which ties in with potential revenue, and Value (“Does it give good value for what you pay?").

With a few retailers recently reporting weak earnings, these metrics may provide a good read on what lies ahead for this big sales weekend and beyond.

Purchase Consideration
Category leader Amazon was the only major retailer to increase both its Purchase Consideration and Value scores significantly over the past year, helping to put even more distance between itself and rivals since that time. Currently, 72% of adults said they would consider visiting the site the next time they were on line, a rise of six percentage points over the same date one year ago.

The only other major retailer to make a significant Purchase Consideration gain over last year is Old Navy, which climbed four percentage points year-over-year to 33% now, up two ranking places in this critical category.

Dropping by significant numbers in Purchase Consideration since 2014 are Best Buy (down eight points), which already reported softer sales and warned about holiday sales, and Macy’s, which just reported disappointing earnings.

Amazon was the only retailer to increase its Value score significantly since last year. Value score can range from 100 to -100 with a zero score equaling a neutral position. Amazon rose several points from a Value score of 50 last year to 57 now.

Old Navy, Target, Best Buy, Walmart and eBay follow behind, in score order.

Best Buy and Macy's Woe's
Best Buy’s Purchase Consideration and Value scores indicate this may not be as successful a holiday season as in the past for them. While still remaining in the top 5 in the rankings, Best Buy is the only retailer to fall by statistically significant measures in both key metrics.

Macy’s is the only other retailer to take a significant drop since last year in Purchase Consideration, right on the heels of announcing a weak third quarter, and reducing their guidance for the year.

YouGov BrandIndex measured 21 major holiday retailers. Each one is charted by combining two of YouGov BrandIndex’s most relevant scores: Purchase Consideration ("When you are in the market next to purchase office supplies, from which of the following brands would you consider purchasing?”) and Value (“Does it give good value for what you pay?"). The size of each bubble in the chart relates to their Ad Awareness score, which asks respondents: "Which of the following brands have you seen an advertisement for in the past two weeks?"

YouGov BrandIndex ( interviews 4,300 people each weekday from a representative US population sample, more than 1.5 million interviews per year. Respondents are drawn from an online panel of more than 2MM individuals.

Value: Holiday Retailers
Value: Holiday Retailers
Consideration: Holiday Retailers
Consideration: Holiday Retailers
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